#24 Terror Plan Turns Sour

Hamas has repeatedly talked about a "truce" with Israel, which the world has urged the Israelis to accept as a sufficient alternative to recognition for now. The latest news is that the term "truce" is the perfect word to use, as it is inherently a temporary phenomenon. Hamas has been rearming, regrouping and becoming ever more powerful and ready to combat the Israelis in the soon to come renewed confrontation.

It appears the time of confrontation has come very near. This, of course, means Hamas is feeling strong enough despite all the attempts to cripple them. A major suicide attack on Tel Aviv was prevented this Passover, as Shin Bet and IDF forces arrested 19 Hamas members in the West Bank city of Qalqilya for planning a car bomb containing some 220 lbs of explosives. The Hamas ring which the arrested members belong to was involved in some serious attacks, including the Dolphinarium attack of June 2001.

For some reason, the bomber (a holder of an Israeli ID, no less) did not carry out the attack in Tel Aviv, though he had made it to the center of the Tel Aviv metropolitan area with the vehicle. Instead, he returned to Qalqilya, where the bomb accidentally exploded. Perhaps a very welcome moment of moral cringing, but the fact remains that Hamas is still able to exert immense influence and be a major obstacle in any talk of peace.

#22 New Arab-Israeli War Looming?

For a while it looked like Sunni Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia were prepared to go as far as to side with Israel in order to counter the Shia Iran threat. Slowly this image is starting to show signs of deceit, with the Royals being seen increasingly often with smiling faces in public with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

In the meantime, while a Saudi Peace Plan very much worth debating but unacceptable for Israel in its current form is on the table, talk from the Kingdom is becoming more confrontational. Prince Saudi al-Faisal recently said "If Israel refuses (the peace plan), that means it doesn't want peace and it places everything back into the hands of fate. They will be putting their future not in the hands of the peacemakers but in the hands of the lords of war." In other words: accept the plan prima facie or face war.

Prince Saud also dismissed any further diplomatic overtures towards Israel, claiming "It has never been proven that reaching out to Israel achieves anything...Other Arab countries have recognised Israel and what has that achieved? The largest Arab country, Egypt, recognised Israel and what was the result? Not one iota of change happened in the attitude of Israel towards peace." Naturally this is an astonishing comment to make, since, for one, Egypt got back a piece of land larger than the entire size of Israel (the Sinai)!

From Iran, in the meanwhile, 'dirty' and accusatory language continues to emanate. Iranian Chief of Staff Gen. Hassan Fayrouz Abadi warned leaders of Arab countries that Israel is planning to launch a war this summer, proclaiming the "Zionists and the Quds (referring to Jerusalem) occupying regime intend to exercise a suicidal plan next summer, and this suicidal plan of the Zionists and American neoconservatives, the implementation of which would start from the occupied Palestinian lands, will not serve the interests of anyone in the world." The official went on to say the plan intends to “prevent the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq and the region and that it will pose a danger primarily to Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Jordan and then Saudi Arabia and all other countries in the region.”

In case it escaped you, it is interesting to note that the countries mentioned in the official's list just so happen to be the same countries that were involved in the declaration at the Arab summit this week which warned Israel to accept peace or prepare for war.

#17 A New Hezbollah?

Ten anti-personnel mines were thrown by Syrians into Israel on Saturday afternoon. The mines were identified by a routine military patrol and sappers were alerted to the scene to neutralize the explosives.

While the army is still investigating who is behind the incident, one of the possibilities it is likely to consider is involvement on the part of the Resistance Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights. A Syrian source told Ynet that the resistance group was founded with the aim of launching "a guerrilla war" in the Golan, with Syrian gunmen planning to infiltrate Israel to perpetrate attacks. Syria drew its conclusions from last summer’s war in Lebanon, and it was likely the group would operate parallel to the Hezbollah terror organization.

The army insists the Syrian government is responsible for its border, even if the incident was a local initiative. This would mean that two terrorist organizations directly supported by the Syrian government are now operating against Israel. One, Hezbollah, is increasingly becoming an Iranian puppet group, which makes it all the more likely that the Resistance Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights will become the new Syrian toy. Although clearly in baby shoes for now, this group has the potential to grow in power. At (read: War) increasingly likely.

#15 Arab Leaders Ready to Accept Israel?

At the end of a Spanish-Arab conference in Madrid, the Foreign Ministers of seven Arab countries (Syria, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Tunisia) issued a joint statement expressing their desire to "advance together toward recognition and normalization of relations with Israel." In the statement, the officials expressed their hope that the Mecca agreement signed between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah would lead to the establishment of a national unity government in the Palestinian Authority, "which could contribute to finding a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." If meaningful, this is an extremely welcome step to creating a more sensible mind frame in the tumultuous region.

#11 Israei and Lebanese Troops Exchange Fire

Israeli and Lebanese troops have exchanged fire. Lebanese troops deployed along the border with Israel opened fire late Wednesday as Israeli troops searched for Hezbollah bombs, drawing retaliatory fire, officials from both sides said.

This was the first time that shooting erupted across the border since shortly after an Aug. 14 cease-fire that ended a 34-day war between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah militants. Lebanese troops fired volleys of machine guns toward the bulldozer after it crossed the so-called Blue Line — the U.N.-demarcated boundary — and entered about 20 yards into Lebanon, Lebanese officials said. Israeli troops responded with tanks and light weapons.

The Israelis were searching for more explosives, as Israel Defense Forces soldiers on Monday uncovered four devices in the Avivim area in northern Israel, about 60 meters north of the border with Lebanon. It is estimated that the devices were planted recently in order to target IDF troops. The Israeli army said troops operating in Israeli territory along the frontier came under fire, and that the source of the shooting was apparently Lebanese troops nearby. When the attackers refused to quit firing, the Israeli troops opened fire at them.

According to the army, the bulldozers crossed the heavily guarded border fence but remained inside Israeli territory, which extends north of the fence in that area. Lebanese officials contend the Israelis were across the border when fired at.

#5 Israel as a Factor of Regional Stability

The common belief around the world (with some exceptions), is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root of instability in the wider Middle East. Others go so far as to say the existence of the state of Israel is the cause of all that's wrong in the region. Some, however, claim that, were it not for Israel, civil war in a number of Middle Eastern countries would be much more prevalent.

Indeed, one of the few things that unites the diverse factions in the region is a sincere hatred for the state of Israel. Although some Sunni leaders have equated Shiites with the lowest form of being (كفّار kuffār; unbeliever), both sects would agree that the true enemy is Medinat Yisra'el.

A case in point is the recent suicide bombing in the southern resort town of Eilat, where an Islamic Jihad member killed himself and three innocent civilians. Instead of a condemnation, the ruling Hamas movement said that the attack was a "natural response" to Israel's policies. Palestinian Web site Ramattan (unfortunately only in Arabic) even quoted the family of the 23 year old suicide bomber, Fasial al-Saqsaq, as saying "We knew that he was going to carry out a martyrdom operation...His mother and father prayed for him to succeed." President Abbas, on the other hand, condemned the bombing.

Despite their differences, just one day after the bombing, Hamas and Fatah managed to achieve what they hadn't been able to during the relative lull with the Israelis; namely implement a cease-fire. About 36 Palestinians had been killed in the last few days as a result of the infighting, making the threat of all out civil war more likely than ever before. Fortunately for them, a reminder that there is another, more significant enemy, was enough to put a temporary halt to the internal bloodshed.

This pattern can also be found in the rest of the Middle East. While Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is locked in a struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood, the same anti-Israel voices can be heard coming from government sponsored newspapers and from Muslim Brotherhood officials. Although officially Egypt and Israel are at peace, you wouldn't know it based on their press.

Furthermore, Iran's nuclear program has been a major point of contention for Sunni Saudi Arabia, which is highly weary of any form of Shia domination. Reports have even surfaced that Saudi Arabia is considering developing her own nuclear program in response to Iran, which was corroborated recently by a top Saudi ambassador. While a nuclear program does not necessarily equate to seeking a nuclear weapon, it does seem odd for a country like Iran to need nuclear energy, while the Saudis have made clear they will only embark on a nuclear path if Iran remains defiant. Again, despite the animosity between these countries, there is no hesitation in collaborating when it comes to arming and financing groups hostile to Israel.

Other examples that cannot be ignored include Lebanon and Syria. Both the current internal strife and the horrible civil war in Lebanon show the precariousness of stability in the diverse country. The recent conflict with Israel, however, united practically the entire nation and garnered Hezbollah unprecedented support. Now that the enemy is gone, the country is on the verge of political collapse. In a sad, ironic sense, it appears only Israel is capable of uniting the Lebanese. In Syria too there were massive movements against Assad's Baathist regime, culminating in a major crackdown that decimated the Muslim Brotherhood mainly due to what is commonly known as the Hama massacre in 1982. Here too there is little conflict when it comes to how to perceive Israel: hate them.

Perhaps there is something to the idea that Israel is in fact a source internal stability for rival factions in the Palestinian territories and the greater Middle East. Rather than a source of instability for the region, Israel serves as a unifying element for internal (and at times external) politics in a number of Middle Eastern countries.