#22 New Arab-Israeli War Looming?

For a while it looked like Sunni Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia were prepared to go as far as to side with Israel in order to counter the Shia Iran threat. Slowly this image is starting to show signs of deceit, with the Royals being seen increasingly often with smiling faces in public with Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

In the meantime, while a Saudi Peace Plan very much worth debating but unacceptable for Israel in its current form is on the table, talk from the Kingdom is becoming more confrontational. Prince Saudi al-Faisal recently said "If Israel refuses (the peace plan), that means it doesn't want peace and it places everything back into the hands of fate. They will be putting their future not in the hands of the peacemakers but in the hands of the lords of war." In other words: accept the plan prima facie or face war.

Prince Saud also dismissed any further diplomatic overtures towards Israel, claiming "It has never been proven that reaching out to Israel achieves anything...Other Arab countries have recognised Israel and what has that achieved? The largest Arab country, Egypt, recognised Israel and what was the result? Not one iota of change happened in the attitude of Israel towards peace." Naturally this is an astonishing comment to make, since, for one, Egypt got back a piece of land larger than the entire size of Israel (the Sinai)!

From Iran, in the meanwhile, 'dirty' and accusatory language continues to emanate. Iranian Chief of Staff Gen. Hassan Fayrouz Abadi warned leaders of Arab countries that Israel is planning to launch a war this summer, proclaiming the "Zionists and the Quds (referring to Jerusalem) occupying regime intend to exercise a suicidal plan next summer, and this suicidal plan of the Zionists and American neoconservatives, the implementation of which would start from the occupied Palestinian lands, will not serve the interests of anyone in the world." The official went on to say the plan intends to “prevent the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq and the region and that it will pose a danger primarily to Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Jordan and then Saudi Arabia and all other countries in the region.”

In case it escaped you, it is interesting to note that the countries mentioned in the official's list just so happen to be the same countries that were involved in the declaration at the Arab summit this week which warned Israel to accept peace or prepare for war.

#20 Iran Upset with Russians this Time

Russia has delayed the shipment of nuclear fuel to Iran. Russian state-owned firm Atomstroiexport announced on Monday that a shipment of nuclear fuel would not be delivered as scheduled in March because of delays in payment by Iran. This is a major political blow to the Iranians, coming at a time when pressure is increasing on the one hand, and Iran is becoming ever more defiant on the other. Being a "friendly nation" that stands in the way makes it all the more painful.

In what has become typical for Iranian politicians, harsh words emanated as a result from Teheran. Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said the delay was "deplorable," while Iranian lawmaker Rasoul Sediqi Bonabi went as far as to say "Russians are extortionists...Moscow has never been a reliable partner and will never be so in the future."

Nevertheless, Larijani expects the Russians will stick to their side of the bargain, rejecting reports that said Russia would not proceed with the Bushehr plant unless Iran suspends uranium enrichment, as the UN Security Council has repeatedly demanded. "We have not received such a message from Russia," he said. Iran's atomic agency also denies Russia's claim that it is behind on payments, saying it has met all its financial obligations.

#18 Bush Success Despite Protests

Faced with what appears to be the highest level of anti-US sentiment in Latin America in history, President Bush embarked on his longest trip ever to to the region. After what is perhaps the most important stop in Brazil, Bush will travel to Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico before returning to Washington.

Commenting on the trip, Bush said "This is a long trip and the reason why is I want to remind people throughout our neighborhood that America cares about them...And I bring a message of hope, a message that says we care about the human condition, and a message of accomplishment." Bush rightfully noted that he has increased aid to Latin America during his presidency, "and yet we don't get much credit for it." He went on to say that "I want the taxpayers, I want the American people to get credit for their generosity in Central and South America."

Arriving in Sao Paolo, Bush was greeted with major protests, but it seems imminent that a biofuels pact will be signed between the two countries. Ethanol powers eight out of 10 new cars in Brazil and, together with the US, Brazil produces about 70% of the world's ethanol - a bio-fuel made from sugar cane or corn.

Besides agreeing on economic deals, Bush says he's on a goodwill tour to talk about making sure the benefits of democracy — in the form of better housing, health care and education — are available to all Latin Americans, not just the wealthy. Highlighting such issues appears to be to counter Chavez's aid to the poor and staunchly anti-US Socialist rhetoric.

While Bush’s nemesis, Venezuelan President Chavez, is on his own tour of Latin America to counter Bush’s influence and having a much more receptive response, it appears that it will be the American president who will return home with something tangible, whereas his Venezuelan counterpart will have gained in esteem, but have little else to show for.

#17 A New Hezbollah?

Ten anti-personnel mines were thrown by Syrians into Israel on Saturday afternoon. The mines were identified by a routine military patrol and sappers were alerted to the scene to neutralize the explosives.

While the army is still investigating who is behind the incident, one of the possibilities it is likely to consider is involvement on the part of the Resistance Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights. A Syrian source told Ynet that the resistance group was founded with the aim of launching "a guerrilla war" in the Golan, with Syrian gunmen planning to infiltrate Israel to perpetrate attacks. Syria drew its conclusions from last summer’s war in Lebanon, and it was likely the group would operate parallel to the Hezbollah terror organization.

The army insists the Syrian government is responsible for its border, even if the incident was a local initiative. This would mean that two terrorist organizations directly supported by the Syrian government are now operating against Israel. One, Hezbollah, is increasingly becoming an Iranian puppet group, which makes it all the more likely that the Resistance Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights will become the new Syrian toy. Although clearly in baby shoes for now, this group has the potential to grow in power. At (read: War) increasingly likely.

#16 China Hits Back at U.S. (Cheney)

In response to Vice President Dick Cheney's criticism of Beijing (he said China's destruction of an inactive weather satellite last month, as well as its "continued fast-paced military build-up are less constructive, and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a peaceful rise"), a spokesman for the foreign ministry in Beijing accused the US of acting like a nosy neighbour. Qin Gang said China's policies were aimed only at defence, rejecting claims of opaque spending policies. "What's your response if your neighbour keeps peeking into your house through a crack in the door and yelling 'Open the door, let's see what's inside'?" Mr Qin said.

#15 Arab Leaders Ready to Accept Israel?

At the end of a Spanish-Arab conference in Madrid, the Foreign Ministers of seven Arab countries (Syria, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Tunisia) issued a joint statement expressing their desire to "advance together toward recognition and normalization of relations with Israel." In the statement, the officials expressed their hope that the Mecca agreement signed between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah would lead to the establishment of a national unity government in the Palestinian Authority, "which could contribute to finding a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." If meaningful, this is an extremely welcome step to creating a more sensible mind frame in the tumultuous region.

#14 Cheney Critical of China

China's recent anti-satellite weapons test and its continued military buildup are "not consistent" with its stated aim of a peaceful rise as a global power, Vice President Dick Cheney said Friday. Cheney praised China for playing an "especially important" role in the negotiations that resulted in the North Korea deal, under which the North is to seal its main nuclear reactor and allow international inspections in exchange for fuel oil. "Other actions by the Chinese government send a different message," Cheney told the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue, a private organization that promotes ties between the two countries. "Last month's anti-satellite test, China's continued fast-paced military buildup are less constructive and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a peaceful rise," he said.

#12 Former Malaysian Prime Minsiter Praises Iraqi Insurgents

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad congratulated Iraqi insurgents in a recent speech, saying he had the right to express his opinions. Dr Mahathir applauded the insurgents, urging them to ensure the US paid a "high price" for its invasion of Iraq.

Malaysia's immediate reaction came from Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar, who said "I think (Dr Mahathir) has taken that approach and I would not say that the Government supports nor objects to it," adding that Dr Mahathir was free to express his views as a citizen of Malaysia; "This is a free and democratic country and it's very nice to see freedom being exercised."

Dr. Mahathir's outburst on Wednesday came as he convened an alternative war crimes tribunal, which he has spearheaded for alleged victims of abuse in Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. He has also condemned US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair as "child killers" and "war criminals."

This is not the first time Mahatir Mohamed has made such statements. He called President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair war criminals with more Iraqi blood on their hands than Saddam Hussein on a number of occasions, telling reporters at his Malaysian peace foundation that Bush should face the same "sham" justice as Saddam. "He (Bush) should resign straight away and be tried by the same kangaroo court," Mahathir told a news conference called to promote a peace conference he is hosting in Malaysia.

#11 Israei and Lebanese Troops Exchange Fire

Israeli and Lebanese troops have exchanged fire. Lebanese troops deployed along the border with Israel opened fire late Wednesday as Israeli troops searched for Hezbollah bombs, drawing retaliatory fire, officials from both sides said.

This was the first time that shooting erupted across the border since shortly after an Aug. 14 cease-fire that ended a 34-day war between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah militants. Lebanese troops fired volleys of machine guns toward the bulldozer after it crossed the so-called Blue Line — the U.N.-demarcated boundary — and entered about 20 yards into Lebanon, Lebanese officials said. Israeli troops responded with tanks and light weapons.

The Israelis were searching for more explosives, as Israel Defense Forces soldiers on Monday uncovered four devices in the Avivim area in northern Israel, about 60 meters north of the border with Lebanon. It is estimated that the devices were planted recently in order to target IDF troops. The Israeli army said troops operating in Israeli territory along the frontier came under fire, and that the source of the shooting was apparently Lebanese troops nearby. When the attackers refused to quit firing, the Israeli troops opened fire at them.

According to the army, the bulldozers crossed the heavily guarded border fence but remained inside Israeli territory, which extends north of the fence in that area. Lebanese officials contend the Israelis were across the border when fired at.

#6 A New Dictator?

The powers Chavez has wanted for so long have finally been granted to him: the power to legislate by decree.

Now Chavez has a free hand to bring under state control the oil and natural gas projects still run by private companies in Venezuela. Chavez has said companies upgrading heavy oil in the Orinoco River basin — British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., Total SA and Statoil ASA — must submit to state-controlled joint ventures. The new law enables Chavez to unilaterally "regulate" this transition if companies don't agree to the new framework within an unspecified "peremptory period."

In short, Chavez gains free rein in Venezuela.

#5 Israel as a Factor of Regional Stability

The common belief around the world (with some exceptions), is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root of instability in the wider Middle East. Others go so far as to say the existence of the state of Israel is the cause of all that's wrong in the region. Some, however, claim that, were it not for Israel, civil war in a number of Middle Eastern countries would be much more prevalent.

Indeed, one of the few things that unites the diverse factions in the region is a sincere hatred for the state of Israel. Although some Sunni leaders have equated Shiites with the lowest form of being (كفّار kuffār; unbeliever), both sects would agree that the true enemy is Medinat Yisra'el.

A case in point is the recent suicide bombing in the southern resort town of Eilat, where an Islamic Jihad member killed himself and three innocent civilians. Instead of a condemnation, the ruling Hamas movement said that the attack was a "natural response" to Israel's policies. Palestinian Web site Ramattan (unfortunately only in Arabic) even quoted the family of the 23 year old suicide bomber, Fasial al-Saqsaq, as saying "We knew that he was going to carry out a martyrdom operation...His mother and father prayed for him to succeed." President Abbas, on the other hand, condemned the bombing.

Despite their differences, just one day after the bombing, Hamas and Fatah managed to achieve what they hadn't been able to during the relative lull with the Israelis; namely implement a cease-fire. About 36 Palestinians had been killed in the last few days as a result of the infighting, making the threat of all out civil war more likely than ever before. Fortunately for them, a reminder that there is another, more significant enemy, was enough to put a temporary halt to the internal bloodshed.

This pattern can also be found in the rest of the Middle East. While Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is locked in a struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood, the same anti-Israel voices can be heard coming from government sponsored newspapers and from Muslim Brotherhood officials. Although officially Egypt and Israel are at peace, you wouldn't know it based on their press.

Furthermore, Iran's nuclear program has been a major point of contention for Sunni Saudi Arabia, which is highly weary of any form of Shia domination. Reports have even surfaced that Saudi Arabia is considering developing her own nuclear program in response to Iran, which was corroborated recently by a top Saudi ambassador. While a nuclear program does not necessarily equate to seeking a nuclear weapon, it does seem odd for a country like Iran to need nuclear energy, while the Saudis have made clear they will only embark on a nuclear path if Iran remains defiant. Again, despite the animosity between these countries, there is no hesitation in collaborating when it comes to arming and financing groups hostile to Israel.

Other examples that cannot be ignored include Lebanon and Syria. Both the current internal strife and the horrible civil war in Lebanon show the precariousness of stability in the diverse country. The recent conflict with Israel, however, united practically the entire nation and garnered Hezbollah unprecedented support. Now that the enemy is gone, the country is on the verge of political collapse. In a sad, ironic sense, it appears only Israel is capable of uniting the Lebanese. In Syria too there were massive movements against Assad's Baathist regime, culminating in a major crackdown that decimated the Muslim Brotherhood mainly due to what is commonly known as the Hama massacre in 1982. Here too there is little conflict when it comes to how to perceive Israel: hate them.

Perhaps there is something to the idea that Israel is in fact a source internal stability for rival factions in the Palestinian territories and the greater Middle East. Rather than a source of instability for the region, Israel serves as a unifying element for internal (and at times external) politics in a number of Middle Eastern countries.

#3 Ban - Darfur's Hero?

While former Secretary General Annan often spoke of his feeling of guilt for not having done more to stop the Rwandan genocide, little was done about Darfuf under his leadership. This might be changing under Ban Ki-Moon, as the continuing crisis in the Sudanese region of Darfur is set to dominate proceedings and headlines at the African Union in Ethiopia. Ban is personally meeting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and has pledged to press him to allow UN peacekeepers in. Sudan appears under pressure at the AU Summit - will the tragedy in Darfur finally be tackled?